The iPad as the “End of an Era”? – Not the way I see it.

In this month’s Wired magazine, Stephen Johnson writes: “The tablet may turn out to be the final stage of an extraordinary era of textual innovation.” (http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/03/ff_tablet_essays#johnson)

Johnson’s point is that the small digital footprint of text and nearly infinite computing power of the PC (and now the iPad), means that it’s now only the copyholders that prevent instant access to everything every written, and thus the end of an era.

I disagree.  I think we’re just getting started.

It’s true that computers and networks have dramatically amplified human capacity to generate, store and share text.  It’s also true hardware and software have converged to integrate vast stores of digital information in our every day lives.

However, we’re still remarkably distant from computers being able to understand what we mean when we write.  Sure, gmail can post adds for Coca-Cola when I’m writing to my friends about steps in the steel refinery process, but that remains far from true understanding.

As our devices get more sophisticated, what must happen next is an era of understanding.  While “understanding” requires interpreting myriad inputs, the cornerstone of understanding humans is the ability to comprehend the written word.

This isn’t a new problem, and intelligent people have been working on a solution for quite some time.  The building blocks are clear and solutions are beginning to emerge in the market.

First, you won’t be able to rely on dictionaries to sort out meaning, for the simple reason that words change based on who speaks and in what context.  “Park” is a noun symbolizing where I have a picnic, a verb for what I do with my car when I’m at the store, or, with slightly less frequency, a proper last name describing an individual from a certain family.

Second, you’d better bring a big computer (and have some very good shortcuts) because speed matters.  A human of average intelligence uses about 10,000 words and adjusts the meaning of those words based on tone, location, speaker, non-verbal cues, etc.  While the field of human psychology is rife with examples of our cognitive shortcuts and their corresponding failings, the human brain does a remarkable job with a very computationally intense process.

For a moment, consider a world where the computer will understand text with the same speed and depth of humans.  A new era will be upon us.   You’ll CC your digital assistant on an email and it will schedule a meeting with right people at the right time, book flights for all attendees and make sure you’re eating at a restaurant that can accommodate your co-workers’ special dietary needs.   If you are a lawyer, your computer will suggest arguments with the greatest chance of success for a specific judge, based on the judge’s published opinions, all while you are writing the initial brief.   For doctors and nurses, the computer will suggest and rule out possible diagnosis as you dictate a patient’s symptoms.  Or, even more commonly, as you and I are writing typing our thoughts on a topic of interest, your computer will find people with similar interests and cite relevant passages of everything ever written.

No, not the end of an era.  Far from it.

I’d say the more important era is just beginning.